We kicked off the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Exports Sales. Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, and Continuing Jobless Claims at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Final and S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Factory Orders ex Transportation, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services New Orders, and ISM Services Prices at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 9:40 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.Ahead of Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ADP private payrolls data showed that private business added 143,000 jobs in September. It was the largest number of jobs added in 3 months and above the consensus estimate of 120,000. Additionally, the August figure was revised upward by 4,000 jobs to 103,000. The manufacturing industry added jobs for the 1st month since April, and total goods-producing jobs increased ny 42,000, while the service sector added 101,000 jobs.
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Central US Forecast Extends Dryness in Second Half of October; Abnormal Warmth to Favor Central Plains & Western US:The Central US pattern is forecast to stagnate into Oct 17th. There does remain risk remain risks of Tropical Storms and 1 that could reach Hurricane strength, the guidance model is showing soaking rainfall to the Gulf/Florida, a concern for the US storm-battered Southeast. We will keep you updated on future details. A complete lack of of rain is forecast elsewhere. Temps will be near to above normal, with highs in the 80’s to favor the Southern Plains, NE, and SD. Harvest progress over the next two weeks will rival current records (14-16/week). The primary issue is one of soil moisture loss across the Plains, where an active winter pattern is desired to replenish moisture.
Models Rend Drier in Brazil Next 10 Days; 11-15 Day Guidance Stays Wet:The major forecasting models have added rain to Central and Northern Argentina, which will be greatly welcomed, but have pushed backwards the projected pattern shift in Northern Brazil to Oct 12th . This trend needs watching as abnormal heat and lack of precipitation keep soybean seeding paused this week and next week in Mato Grosso, Goias, and far northern producing states. A meaningful boost in soil moisture lies ahead in Argentina. Planting advances in Rio Grande do Sul & Parana in S Brazil. Net soil moisture loss persists across the northern 50% of Brazil’s soybean area over the next 10 days, with temps there to stay in the 90’s/low 100’s, after which a more normal pattern od rain is forecast. Soaking rain in Mato Grosso has yet to be pulled reliably into the 10-day forecast.
Black Sea Corn Supply/DemandMeaningful revisions to Black Sea corn production are anticipated in USDA’s Oct and Nov WASDE’s. USDA’s projected Ukrainian yield of 6.63 MT/HA (106 BPA) is too high by 12-14% given key parts of northern and eastern Ukraine recorded rainfall in July & August of just .10-1.30”, or 20-30% of normal. The complete absence of subsoil moisture is the culprit, and little/no rain has fallen since Sep 1, which will negatively impact kernel weights. Modest additional yield loss ia also forecast in SW Russia. Ag Resources (ARC) pegs combined Ukrainian & Russian corn production in 2024 at 37.1 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 40.7, and down 12 MMT’s (24%) from last year. Combined exports will be no larger than 24.2 MMT’s (24%), vs. a record 35.7 MMT’s last year, which implies some 450 Mil Bu of importer demand must be deferred summer 2025 (to South America). Crippling drought supports US corn exports beginning in December onward. ARC projects combined Black Sea corn exports in the Dec-Feb period at no better than 7.5 MMT’s, vs. 12.1 a year ago. Mar-Apr exports are forecasted at 5 MMT’s, vs. 8.5 last year. Black Sea corn simply won’t be available in bulk during winter and spring.Corn used for ethanol in August reached 473 Mil Bu, while down 11 Mil from July (July revised up by just 10 Mil Bu) it was well above the current USDA forecast of 5.465 Bil. Lat week’s ethanol production rebounded to 1,015 TBD up from 994 TBD last week and up 1% from a year ago. There was 102 Mil Bu of corn used, or 14.6 per day below the 14.9 MBD needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5,450 Bil. Implied gasoline sage last week plunged 7.4% to 8.521 MBD, however, was still up 6.3% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks were steady at 23.5 Mil Barrels. Algeria is seeking 320,000 MT of South American feed corn for Oct/Nov shipment in a tender that expires today. Look for US corn export sales to range from 25-40Mil Bu.
