The BLS Reports Jobs Rebounded More Than Expected In September

The BLS reports payroll employment rises by 254,000 in September. I discuss two reasons the report is suspect.(Click on image to enlarge)Data from the BLS, chart by Mish Jobs vs Employment
From September 2020 through early 2022, nonfarm payroll job gains and full time employment changes tracked together.Starting around March of 2022, a divergence between employment and jobs became very noticeable, and I have been discussing the divergence since then. Job Stats vs One Year Ago

Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,438,000

Employment: +314,000

Full Time Employment: -485,000

Job Stats vs Two Years Ago

Nonfarm Payrolls: +5,569,000

Employment: +3,135,000

Full Time Employment: +1,042,000

In the last year, nonfarm payrolls are up by 2.4 million while employment is only up by 314,000 and full-time employment is down by 485,000. Job Report Details

Nonfarm Payroll: +254,000 to 159,105,000 – Establishment Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: +224,000 to 269,080,000

Civilian Labor Force: +150,000 to 168,699,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: +0.0 to 62.7% – Household Survey

Employment: +430,000 to 161,864,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: -281,000 to 6,834,000- Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 4.1% – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: +75,000 to 100,381 – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 7.7% – Household Survey

Nonfarm Payroll Change by Sector(Click on image to enlarge)Government and Health Services are related to the surge of illegal immigrants and the need to address them. Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls(Click on image to enlarge) Monthly Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000

The change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000.

With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.

Nearly every month there are negative revisions. Today we have rare positive revision. Part-Time Jobs

Involuntary Part-Time Work: -206,000 to 4,624,000

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +5,000 to 22,566,000

Total Full-Time Work: +414,000 to 133,660,000

Total Part-Time Work: -95,000 to 28,161,000

Multiple Job Holders: +121,000 to 8,659,000

The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.It’s important to not that multiple jobs are additive to nonfarm payrolls but not the number of employed. Hours and WagesThis data is frequently revised.

Average weekly hours of all private employees fell 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours.

Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees fell 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours.

Average weekly hours of manufacturers was flat 40.0 hours.

An overall decline or rise of a tenth of an hour does not sound line much, but with employment over 160 million, it’s more significant than it appears at first glance. Hourly EarningsThis data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month. rose $0.13 to $35.36. A year ago the average wage was $34.01. That’s a gain of 4.0%. rose $0.08 to $30.33. A year ago the average wage was $29.18. That’s a gain of 3.9%.Year-over-year wages are keeping up with year-over-year inflation after underperforming for many months. Unemployment Rate(Click on image to enlarge)The unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in January and April of 2023 at 3.4 percent. It’s now 4.1 percent.“The unemployment rate has bottomed this cycle and will generally head higher.”I first made that comment many months ago. If there was any doubt, it’s now erased. Alternative Measures of Unemployment(Click on image to enlarge) is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

The official unemployment rate is 4.1 percent.

U-6 is much higher at 7.7 percent.

Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers. Birth Death ModelStarting January 2014, I dropped the charts from this report.The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Birth-Death Methodology ExplainedI gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the hype is wrong in my June 8, 2024 post I repeat, do not subtract the birth-death number from the headline number. That’s flawed.However, it is now clear that the BLS is too optimistic about the number of jobs they believe are being created by the net creation of new businesses.A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job RevisionsOn August 22, 2024 I gave Those negative revisions are a direct result of the BLS Birth-Death model gone haywire. Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.

The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.

If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.Looking for job openings on Jooble or Monster or in the want ads does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month. Recent Economic DataSeptember 30: October 1: October 1: Final ThoughtsThis was the strongest payroll report in months. But people taking second jobs added 121,000 to the headline number.Also, the report is suspect. On August 22 I noted The BLS Birth-Death model has gone haywire resulting in mammoth negative revisions.And yesterday, ADP data shows In addition to a flawed birth-death model, I strongly suspect the BLS is oversampling large employers or underweighting small businesses. See above link for details.Dockworkers End Their Strike, Accept A 62 Percent Wage HikeSmall Businesses Reducing Workers For The Last Five Months GDPNow Nowcast Dips On Weak ISM And Construction Spending