As Bloomberg’s Michael Regan writes, “pinpointing the exact level of Treasury yields that will break the back of the bull market has become the trendiest parlor game in town.” Earlier today, Tom Lee of Fundstrat became the latest to chime in, predicting that rates – which are rising due to reflation, – should support higher P/E ratios until interest rates are above 4%.
Then, it was Jeff Gundlach’s turn.
Recall that it was Gundlach who during a DoubleLine webcast on January 9 predicted that if the 10Year goes to 2.63% – it was at 2.50% then – “stocks will be negatively impacted.” However, he also added that if the 10Y TSY passes 2.63%, it will head well higher, likely pushing toward 3%. Gundlach also was the first to note that he expects a 3.25% print on the 10Y in 2018, a target which was since adopted by both Goldman and, today, Bank of America.
Fast forward to today when speaking on CNBC, Gundlach estimated the fair value on 10Y yields in the USA to current nominal GDP. The gap is notable as current nominal GDP prints are above 4% with 10y yields below 3%.
Here is what he told CNBC:
