Photo by  on  USD/CAD trades with mild negative bias around 1.4315 in Wednesday’s late Amercian session.  Canada posts its first trade surplus in 10 months in December as exports continue to expand.  US ISM Services PMI eased to 52.8 in January vs. 54.3 expected.  The USD/CAD pair posts modest losses near 1.4315 during the late American session on Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) edges higher as Canada’s trade balance shifted into surplus and US President Donald Trump delayed his orders to impose 25% tariffs on Canada for 30 days. Canada in December reported its first trade surplus in ten months, with exports outpacing imports due to US businesses building up inventory ahead of potential tariffs, supporting the Loonie. Additionally, US tariffs provided relief from the looming trade war threat. Trump on Monday agreed to a 30-day pause on his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada as trading partners took steps to appease his concerns about border security and drug trafficking. “Tariff worries are easing – for now, at least – which is allowing the CAD to stabilize,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. “Unless trade talks deteriorate significantly again, there is a chance that the USD-CAD peak reached Monday near 1.48 will represent a significant high-water mark for spot,” added Osborne.  Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in weaker than the estimation of 54.3. The US […]

Image Source:  Gold price is poised to reach $2,900 amid an uncertain environment triggered by Trump’s policies. US businesses in the services industry are cooling, indicating an ongoing slowdown. Fed officials turned unease on Trump tariffs, putting inflation ahead of employment. Gold price is set to extend its gains, rising more than 0.90% on Wednesday, sponsored by US Dollar weakness and falling US Treasury bond yields. The escalation of the China-US trade war keeps investors flocking to Gold’s safety appeal, and the XAU/USD trades near $2,870 as bulls target $2,900.US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and policies continued to drive investors toward the golden metal, which is in unchartered territory. Traders are eyeing the $2,900 mark. Economic data revealed that the labor market remains solid after January’s ADP Employment Change report, which showed that private companies hired more people than foreseen.However, not everything was positive on the data front. Business activity revealed by S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the services sector is cooling.In the meantime, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials had crossed the wires and shown that they were uncertain about the impact of tariffs on inflation. Yet Chicago’s Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that ignoring tariffs’ potential impact would be a mistake.“If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs,” Goolsbee said.Given the backdrop that Trump delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for […]

Image Source:  While Trump never admits he is wrong, he often walk backs a policy initiative in a hurry if challenged directly. On Saturday, Feb 1 he announced at 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, carving out a 10% tariff on energy imports, principally oil and gas. Canadian officials, corporate leaders and the Canadian public at large were enraged that the Canada, the oldest, most reliable US ally, would be treated with such contempt. By Monday morning, Trump announced, after speaking with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the President Claudia Sheinbaum, the starting date for tariffs was pushed back by a full month. Mexico and Canada represent the two largest US trading partners, supplanting China, a long time Trump bête noir. Moreover, Trump, not doubt, believed Canada and Mexico would be push overs, since both countries relied heavily upon the US market.Since Trump has multiple agenda items in using tariffs, the reasons behind “punishing” Canada are often very obscure. On the surface, he claims that Canada is a major source of illegal immigration into the US and illegal drug smuggling. Both claims have no basis in fact, but provide Trump with the whipping boy he is so fond of using. Frequently, Trump notes that Canada has a large positive trade balance with the US and this needs to rebalanced in favour of the US. According to some key Trump advisors, tariffs are the only answer to correct this imbalance. This is a disguised reference to the 18th century mercantilism philosophy which advocates […]

IBEX 35 (Spain) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Bullish Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Gray wave 3 Position: Orange wave 3 Direction Next Higher Degrees: Gray wave 3 (started) Details: The gray wave 2 appears to have completed, and now gray wave 3 of orange wave 3 is in progress. Wave Cancel Invalidation Level: 11,330.48 Analysis OverviewThe IBEX 35 daily chart analysis based on Elliott Wave Theory indicates a bullish trend in an impulsive phase. The current wave structure highlights gray wave 3 within orange wave 3, signaling continued upward momentum in the market.The analysis suggests that gray wave 2 has likely completed, allowing gray wave 3 of orange wave 3 to unfold. According to Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is typically the most dynamic phase in a bullish trend, often characterized by strong and sustained price movements. This phase could present increased market activity and buying opportunities.The wave cancel invalidation level is set at 11,330.48. If the price drops below this threshold, the current wave count would be invalidated, necessitating a reassessment of the market outlook. This level acts as a critical point for traders to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.ConclusionThe IBEX 35 daily chart presents a positive market outlook, with gray wave 3 advancing as part of orange wave 3. The completion of gray wave 2 supports the potential for further upward movement.Traders should closely monitor price developments and key levels to confirm the unfolding bullish trend and to identify potential trading opportunities within this structure.IBEX 35 (Spain) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Bullish Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Gray wave 3 Position: Orange wave 3 Direction Next Lower Degrees: Gray wave 4 Details: The gray wave 2 appears to have completed, and now gray wave 3 of orange wave 3 is in progress. Wave Cancel Invalidation Level: 11,330.48 Analysis OverviewThe IBEX 35 weekly chart analysis based on Elliott Wave Theory confirms a bullish trend in an impulsive phase. The […]

Image Source:  The first month of 2025 started with a bang when newly-inaugurated President Donald Trump announced a groundbreaking AI (artificial intelligence) program led by business titan thought leaders called Stargate, which promises to spend a half trillion dollars on AI data center infrastructure projects and create  of jobs. Just one week later, a wet blanket was placed on the Stargate euphoria when a Chinese AI upstart announced a technological . Stocks moved lower on the last day of the month when Trump added insult to injury by confirming 25% Mexican/Canadian tariffs and 10% additional Chinese tariffs would be implemented .Regardless, positive economic and corporate data coupled with other pro-business fiscal policies (e.g., deregulation and lower proposed taxes) allowed the financial markets to finish the month with respectable gains. More specifically, the S&P 500 surged higher by +2.7%; the Nasdaq +1.6%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.7%. DeepSeek = Deep AI Trouble? Ever since OpenAI launched its ChatGPT language model (LLM) at the end of 2022, the global AI gold rush began. Just as the United States appeared to be dominating the AI race to global superiority, a bombshell was recently released, when a new Chinese AI upstart, DeepSeek, released a  claiming the company’s R1 large language model (LLM) rivaled competitors’ LLMs like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Meta’s Llama (META), Anthropic’s Claude, and Alibaba’s Qwen (BABA) for a small fraction of the price spent by DeepSeek’s American rivals. The “DeepSeek Freak” caused a chain reaction of selling across a wide swath of companies (including NVIDIA Corp – […]