(Click on image to enlarge)The private sector added 183K jobs in January, which was well above the market’s expectation of 148K. These results were a little better than last month (December), which was revised to a net gain of 176K, and above the historical average of 151.5K job gains per month (orange line).The gains were broad based among establishment size:Small business: +39KMid-sized business: +92KLarge business: +69KAlthough led by the services industry:Manufacturing: -6KServices: +190K*With leisure & hospitality (+54K) and trade, transport, and utilities (+56K) leading the way(Click on image to enlarge)The 3 month average of private sector job gains dropped from 200,333 to 187,667 and the 12 month average increased from 144,333 to 148,333.(Click on image to enlarge)Private sector job gains have grown 1.3% over the last 12 months, which is below the historical average of 1.6%. But the pace of job growth seems to have stabilized and is now trending higher again. This is now the 12th straight month where annualized job gains has been moving higher.Overall a good start to the new year for private sector payrolls. On Friday, we’ll get the NFP employment report which includes government employees, wage gains, and the unemployment rate.

Image Source:   S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions 24Q4 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 12.2%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 15.5%. Of the 244 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q4, 77.0% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 67%. The 24Q4 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 4.7%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 5.3%. (Click on image to enlarge)Click  to view the full report.

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but for now key yields for government bonds are flat to slightly lower in recent days.The serene profile for Treasury yields is surprising, given the firehose of news updates on topics that, in theory, are relevant to market expectations, inflation, and economic growth. It’s only Wednesday, but Trump so far this week has launched a trade war only to dial it down, offering what may be a  to plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (a new  still applies).One of the concerns is that tariffs will raise prices, thereby stoking inflation. Optimists note that any inflationary bump due to a tariffs would likely be a one-time affair. Perhaps, but stronger pricing pressure is problematic at a time when the Federal Reserve is still trying to complete the last mile of taming the pandemic-driven inflation surge.One theory that’s being discussed is that the Fed may take pre-emptive action if it expects that a global trade war will fuel a new run of inflation. But San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly earlier this week downplayed plans to tighten policy early on.The Fed does not “need to be pre-emptive at this point,” Daly  The New York Times on Monday. “We have policy calibrated for this economy and the one we expect to have, and we’ve got time now to be actively watching to see what […]

Image Source:   British stocks initially faced pressure on Wednesday due to a stronger pound, which approached a near one-month high, weighing on the export-heavy FTSE 100 index. However, the FTSE 100 recovered to gain over 0.5%, supported by specific sectors. The healthcare sector rose 1.1%, driven by a 5.5% surge in GSK following better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Precious metal miners were the top-performing sector, climbing 2.5% as gold prices hit a record high with a 1% jump.  Ferrexpo extended losses, falling 8.6%, after a 157 billion hryvnia ($3.77 billion) civil claim was filed against its Ukrainian unit. Conversely, Grainger gained 3.8% after reporting 15% growth in net rental income for the four months through January. Investors remained cautious ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision, with markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut. In January 2025, the S&P Global UK Composite PMI climbed to 50.6, up from 50.4 the previous month, marking a recovery from a 14-month low. The services sector PMI for January was 50.8, down from 51.1 in December, while the manufacturing PMI improved to 48.3 compared to 47.0.  Single Stock Stories: GSK shares increased by 4.5% to 1,442p, making it the leading percentage gainer on the FTSE 100 index. The British pharmaceutical company has raised its sales target for 2031 to over 40 billion pounds, up from the previously anticipated 38 billion pounds. It exceeded Q4 earnings expectations with a core EPS of 23.2p compared to IBES estimates of 19.01p, driven by strong performance in its HIV […]

After opening the day flat, the Indian benchmark continued its downtrend as the session progressed, eventually closing more than 300 points lower.Benchmark equity indices, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50, ended Wednesday’s choppy session in negative territory.At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed lower by 313 points (down 0.4%).Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty closed 43 points lower (up 0.2%).Hindalco, BPCL, and ONGC are among the top gainers today.Nestle, HU,L, and Titan, on the other hand, were among the top losers today.The GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,750, down by 23 points at the time of writing.The BSE MidCap index ended 0.7% higher and the BSE SmallCap index ended 1.4% higher.Sectoral indices were trading mixed on Thursday with stocks in the metal sector and energy sector witnessing buying. Meanwhile, the stocks inthe  realty sector and FMCG sector witnessing selling pressure.The rupee is trading at 87.44 against the US$.Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading 1% higher at Rs 84,636 per 10 grams.Meanwhile, silver prices were trading 0.6% higher at Rs 96,317 per 1 kg.  NSE Blames BSE for Dues BreachIn news, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) has stated that the total liquid assets of its clearing arm, NSE Clearing Ltd (NCL), have fallen below the regulatory threshold due to rival exchange BSE’s pending dues of Rs 3.1 bn. This disclosure was made as part of NSE’s Q3 financial results statement.This is significant as clearing corporations play a critical role in clearing and settling transactions while ensuring counterparty guarantees for trades executed on the exchange platform.SEBI mandates a minimum liquidity threshold […]