As longtime readers know, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how their predicted “climaxes” all occur around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before) we will see the bond market react badly to the fast-growing national debt. While my poor editors at Wiley are very concerned with my delivery being somewhat behind schedule, I really am making progress.But rather than describe a crisis this week, I want to talk about some remarkably good things that may be happening in that same period. This seems more in keeping with the holiday spirit.The quote (commonly attributed to Mark Twain), “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” keeps coming to mind as I write and edit. But there’s a part of what I believe will be involved in this future turmoil that will not have any historical rhyme. That is the part that comes from the optimistic side of me. Simultaneously with the crisis I expect will be significant technological change and progress.We have had crises amid technological change before, but I don’t believe that we have ever experienced the pace of change that will happen this time. We went from 70% of the country working on farms or agriculture-related jobs to the factories within about five generations. Now, 200 years later, only a small part of the US works in agriculture, but we feed not only ourselves but much of the world.In the early 1900s, much of the […]

Bitcoin (BTC) tries the $100,000 support zone after falling to $98,000 during the recent market shakeout. According to some market watchers, the flagship crypto’s recent performance resembles its December 2023 trajectory, suggesting that BTC might see a massive breakout soon. Bitcoin Price Mirrors December 2023’s PerformanceOn Wednesday, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market saw a massive  after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25-basis-point rate cut and signaled fewer cuts than expected in 2025.The flagship cryptocurrency dropped 9.2% from its $108,135 all-time high (ATH), briefly falling below the $99,000 on support before recovering. BTC quickly climbed back to $100,000, surging 2% on Thursday morning to the $102,000 resistance.After the dump, crypto trader Follis  that this month’s price action mirrored BTC’s 2023 trajectory. The trader stated that Bitcoin was “repeating the December playbook from last year,” forecasting that a pump to a new high is coming soon.Per the chart, BTC moved within the $40,000-$45,000 price range before breaking out in January 2024. The breakout was followed by a significant 20% correction to the previous consolidation zone, briefly dipping below this range.However, Bitcoin reclaimed the breakout levels in the following weeks and surged another 47% to its March ATH of $73,000. If the largest crypto by market cap continues to follow this “playbook,” then its price could see a correction below $88,000 by year-end before resuming its bullish run to new highs.Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades  out that BTC’s performance in Q4 resembles its Q4 2023 price action. The analyst stated that Bitcoin will […]

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) had a strong performance in 2024 as inflows surged by over $1 trillion. Most of these inflows were in active and crypto-focused funds like Bitcoin’s IBIT and FBTC. So, this article looks at some of the best ETFs for value investors to buy and hold in 2025. VanEck Wide Moat ETF (MOAT)Warren Buffett has always recommended investing in quality companies that have a wide moat in their operations. These firms have strong pricing power and are extremely difficult to disrupt. For example, it is highly difficult to disrupt companies like Moody’s, Visa, Mastercard, and Google.The MOAT ETF offers investors a chance to invest in quality companies that have a wide moat in the industries. It does that by tracking the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index, which has 55 companies that have a wide moat. Most of MOAT’s companies are industrials, health care, information technology, and consumer staples. Salesforce is the fund’s biggest company and customer relations software provider. It also owns companies like Mulesoft and Slack that dominate their industries.Gilead is another company in the MOAT ETF. It is a healthcare company that has a leading market share in the HIV treatment industry. Autodesk, the largest provider of CAD software, is another major player in the MOAT ETF. Other big names include , Walt Disney, Transunion, Altria Group, and Kenvue. MOAT has a long history of doing well. Its total return in the last five years stood at 80.9%, while its performance this year was 11.7%.  SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)The SPDR S&P Dividend […]

Has the AI craze resulted in an unsustainable rise in the NASDAQ similar to the 1998-2000 period, just before stocks plunged 50-70%?Video Length: 00:18:45Weak Breadth & Inflation: Overblown Or Concerning?Are Stock Market Investors Overconfident?Is A Major Shift Taking Place In The Stock Market?

Gold closed this week at $2,625 (down about $25 since last week) and silver at $29.55 (down about $1.05). The Fed cut rates in time for Christmas but stock markets dropped on the news, spoiled by promises of bigger cuts in 2025. Video Length: 00:15:01 Gold Holds Above $2600Dismantling The Dollar Brick By BrickSilver Retests Swing Highs