Gold is already up more than 9% year-to-date, having hit a series of consecutive record highs along the way. Here’s why we think gold at $3,000/oz is within reach.Gold is already up 9% this yearSource: Refinitv, ING Research  Trump spurs haven demandIt is only February, and gold has already hit a series of fresh record highs this year. Tariff concerns that risk higher inflation and slower economic growth are spurring demand for safe haven assets like gold.Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been delayed by a month, but 10% tariffs on China went ahead. Beijing retaliated immediately by imposing a range of tariffs on US products.Despite the US coming to a deal with Canada and Mexico, the uncertainty over trade and tariffs will continue to buoy gold prices. If trade tensions intensify and we see more retaliatory measures, safe haven demand for gold will continue.US President Donald Trump’s latest comments suggesting that the US takes over the Gaza strip and assumes responsibility for reconstructing the territory have added to this uncertainty, further boosting gold prices.With Trump back in the White House, uncertainty and unpredictability are running high. And gold will continue to benefit from this environment.  Central banks are still bullion hungryGold’s rally in 2024 was driven by central bank buying, especially from China. Central banks are still buying and will probably continue to do so as geopolitical tensions and the economic climate continue to push them to increase their allocation towards safe haven assets.Last year, central banks buying exceeded 1,000 tonnes […]

There is an argument against  that really ticks me off (and the same goes for bitcoin): it offers no return, no interest and no dividend, unlike conventional investments (stocks, bonds, life insurance, bank savings accounts, rental property). It would be a second-rate asset, imperfect and mutilated. We’d be completely dependent on its price, with no guarantee of future income. It’s preposterous.When we compare different types of investment, we need to take into account the overall return: the rise in the share price and the returns paid out, together. We’ve already discussed this work . The benchmark study, updated in 2024, reveals that since 1999, the Livret A savings account has returned 1.83% a year (less than inflation), life insurance 3.09% (barely inflation), the stock market 4.40% (CAC 40, dividends reinvested) and gold 8.69%. These figures are unequivocal.The question is: how can we organize ourselves to make the most of it and, more specifically, to avoid being dependent on the volatility of the ? To achieve this, we recommend the DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) method, a concept introduced by Benjamin Graham in 1949 in his book The Intelligent Investor. This strategy involves investing a fixed amount every month or quarter. It’s a way of getting rid of the stress of knowing when to buy: you do it regularly for the same amount, period. If the price of gold rises, you’re happy to see your overall stock increase in value; if it falls, you’re happy to be able to buy more. And in the long term, […]

GBP/USD falls 0.93%, hitting a session low of 1.2359 after BoE’s unexpected rate decision. BoE’s dovish stance intensifies with forecasts of significant easing by end of 2025, stirring market reactions. Contrast in Fed and BoE policies likely to favor USD strength. The Pound Sterling fell during Thursday’s North American session, down 0.79% after the Bank of England (BoE) reduced the Bank Rate by 25 basis points. Therefore, the  tumbled below 1.2400 and hit a daily low of 1.2359. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.2405.  GBP/USD nosedives below 1.2400 following a surprising 25 basis point cut by the Bank of EnglandAs expected, the BoE lowered  to 4.50%, though surprisingly. Two members voted for a “larger size” rate cut, with Catherine Mann, one of the hawkish members, being one of them. Following the UK’s Central Bank decision, investors rushed to price 65 basis points (bps) of easing towards the end of 2025.Additionally, the BoE updated their forecasts. The British economy is expected to grow by 0.75% and inflation to rise from 2.5% to 3.7%. BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey said he hopes to be able to cut rates further, yet they would take their decisions “meeting by meeting.” He added that although headline inflation edged higher, he sees “continued gradual easing of underlying inflationary pressures.”Across the pond, US Initial Jobless Claims missed the mark for the week ending February 1. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 219K, up from 208K the previous week and exceeded forecasts of […]

Key Market Outlook(s) and Pick(s)On Monday, to discuss tariffs, implications, and stock picks. Thanks to Preston Mizell and Christian Dagger for having me on.On Wednesday, to discuss the Mag 7, tariffs, trade, and rotation. Thanks to Preston Mizell and Christian Dagger for having me on:Here were my notes ahead of the segment:(Click on image to enlarge)(Click on image to enlarge)On Monday, in Orange County, CA, sharing insights on the markets, stock picks, and valuable lessons on careers and life.A huge thank you to Cork Snider, a statistics teacher at La Quinta, for organizing and inviting me to speak. The future of this country is very bright with students and teachers like this! Estee Lauder UpdateYesterday, Estée Lauder’s new CEO, Stéphane de La Faverie, did what pretty much every new CEO does when stepping into a turnaround situation: book a “kitchen sink” quarter. Take all the losses and impairments upfront, resetting expectations, and extending the turnaround timeline so that from here on out, all news is GOOD NEWS. EL actually delivered a strong quarter, beating earnings estimates with $0.62 per share versus the expected $0.32 (a 93.85% earnings surprise) and beating consensus revenue expectations with $4B compared to $3.98B. But management took its medicine all at once by lowering guidance and recognizing over $1B of impairment charges. It’s a move straight out of the same playbook Bracken Darrell used when he took over at VFC: reset guidance and expectations, launch a portfolio review, announce a sweeping cost-cutting and restructuring plan to improve margins, and […]

Image source:   Planning for retirement involves building a diverse and stable income strategy that ensures financial security throughout your golden years. Among the tools available, annuities in retirement planning offer a unique advantage: the ability to create a reliable, guaranteed income stream. However, understanding their types, benefits, and potential drawbacks is essential to determining whether they fit into your retirement plan.  What Are Annuities? are financial products offered by insurance companies that provide regular payments in exchange for an upfront investment. Designed to deliver a steady income, they are particularly useful for retirees seeking stability and peace of mind.  How Annuities Work You invest a lump sum or make periodic payments to the insurance company. In return, the insurer agrees to provide regular payments, which can begin immediately or at a future date. Payments can last for a specific period or the rest of your life, depending on the type of annuity.   Types of AnnuitiesAnnuities come in various forms, each designed to meet specific financial needs and goals.1. Fixed Annuities How They Work: Offer a guaranteed interest rate and predictable income. Best For: Conservative investors seeking stability. Pros: Provides a reliable income stream. Immune to market fluctuations. Cons: Limited growth potential. Inflation can erode purchasing power. 2. Variable Annuities How They Work: Payments are tied to the performance of underlying investment options, such as mutual funds. Best For: Investors comfortable with market risk who seek growth potential. Pros: Potential for higher returns. Income can increase with strong market performance. Cons: Payments are not guaranteed and can […]