The Pound Sterling edges lower to near 1.2420 against the USD ahead of the US NFP data for January. Investors expect the US NFP to drive market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. BoE’s Catherine Mann surprisingly supported a bigger interest rate reduction of 50 bps. The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks lower to near 1.2420 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session ahead of the United States (US)  (NFP) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The US  (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks higher to near 107.80Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data, which is expected to influence market speculation about how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest  steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. On Thursday, Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan said she would support holding interest rates for “quite some time” until the “labor market doesn’t falter” even if inflationary pressures decelerate closer to the central bank’s target of 2%.Last week, Fed Chair  also said that monetary policy adjustments won’t be appropriate until the central bank sees “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in labor market”.The US  report is expected to show that the economy added 170K workers in January, significantly lower than 256K in December. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 4.1%. Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that drives consumer spending. The wage growth measure is estimated to have decelerated […]

 Image Source:    Applied Materials will publish its financial results next week. The company is benefiting from the robust AI infrastructure investments. There are signs that the company has become highly undervalued. Applied Materials () stock price has remained in a tight range in the past few weeks as investors focused on the data center and artificial intelligence industry. AMAT was trading at $182.80 on Friday, down by over 28% from its highest level this year. So, is Applied Materials a good stock to buy ahead of its earnings?  AI investment continuingApplied Materials is a major semiconductor company that supplies products to firms such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, and Global Foundries. Its products include complex solutions such as Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD), atomic vapor deposition (ALD), and Electrochemical Deposition (ECD).AMAT has benefited from the recent tailwinds on artificial intelligence that have led to a big increase in semiconductor demand globally. This growth has helped to push its revenue significantly higher in the last few years. AMAT’s  from $17.2 billion in 2020 to over $27.1 billion in the last financial year. While growth has slowed recently, there is a likelihood that it will benefit from increased AI spending. According to the , the biggest tech companies in the United States are preparing to spend $320 billion in AI investments this year, with Amazon spending $100 billion. These firms spent about $264 billion in 2024. The main concern is that robust spending on data centers has not significantly increased AI revenues. Alphabet has yet to provide details […]

In my daily analysis of the financial markets, the Bitcoin market has caught my attention because it tells us that we just have nowhere to be. This might be a little bit disconcerting for “Bitcoin bros”, but at the end of the day there is no real reason for Bitcoin to start taking off anyway. After all, it is an asset that needs loose monetary policy to really get going, and the fact that we’ve had a couple of positive announcements over the last year has masked the fact that the financial system just isn’t set up for Bitcoin to go explosively upwards. (Click on image to enlarge)Keep in mind, most of the gains we have seen have been in reaction to the Wall Street ETF, and of course the fact that Donald Trump got elected, bringing in a more crypto friendly administration. However, they have yet to actually do anything, and I think the market is essentially in a “let’s wait and see” type of scenario. With that being the case, then I think you need to be very cautious but recognize that we are very much in a huge consolidation pattern.  Technical AnalysisThe technical analysis for this pair is somewhat neutral, but the longer term outlook for Bitcoin is very bullish. That being said, there is the possibility that we enter a fairly negative month ahead, at least from a financial standpoint, not necessarily from a crypto standpoint. This could bring down the value of Bitcoin, but I […]

Image Source:   The dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant. That could more than offset some safe-haven flows on the back of souring China sentiment. In the eurozone, we’ll watch the ECB’s new estimate for the neutral rate. Central banks in CEE maintain a hawkish tone but rates diverge.  USD: Annual revisions may be bigThe dollar’s bearish momentum has eased into today’s US jobs release. Most of the tariff shock from last weekend has been absorbed, and markets are also probably reconsidering the optimism on a US-China deal. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are due to come into effect on Monday, and the chances of a de-escalation before then have decreased. Also helping the dollar were some comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the strong dollar policy remains in place.The biggest driver for FX should be US payroll figures for January. The consensus is for a slowdown from 256k to 175k, but our estimate is closer to 160k. A lot of focus will be on annual benchmark revisions. Last year’s provisional revisions indicated that, upon cross-referencing with tax data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had overestimated job creation by approximately one-third. This points to significant issues with their model, and we anticipate substantial adjustments to the monthly payroll numbers.So, despite some support potentially coming from souring sentiment on China, we have a negative bias on the dollar today. Markets are pricing in 43bp of easing by year-end and there is room for […]

Bovespa Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Bullish Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Orange Wave 1 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Direction Next Lower Degrees: Orange Wave 2 Details: Navy blue wave 2 appears complete; orange wave 1 of 3 is now developing. Wave Cancel Invalidation Level: 118,103.95 The Bovespa Index daily chart analysis, based on Elliott Wave Theory, indicates a bullish trend currently unfolding in impulsive mode. The main focus is on orange wave 1 within navy blue wave 3, which has commenced following the completion of navy blue wave 2.The successful completion of navy blue wave 2 suggests that the market has transitioned from a corrective phase to a fresh upward movement driven by orange wave 1. This wave often marks the beginning of a new bullish cycle, characterized by increased buying momentum and a gradual price rise.As navy blue wave 3 progresses, the market is expected to sustain its bullish momentum, with orange wave 1 serving as the foundation for further upward moves. The wave cancel invalidation level is set at 118,103.95. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave structure, requiring a reassessment of the market outlook.The formation of orange wave 1 signals a potential continuation of the upward movement, possibly leading to higher impulsive waves in the near term. Traders should closely monitor market conditions to capitalize on bullish opportunities while staying alert for any deviations from the projected wave structure.ConclusionThe Bovespa Index daily chart presents a bullish trend scenario led by the development of orange wave 1 within navy blue wave 3. The completion of navy blue wave 2 suggests renewed buying interest, with further price increases likely. Traders should observe price movements near the invalidation level to ensure accurate market analysis and make informed trading decisions.Bovespa Index Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Weekly ChartBovespa Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis […]