Image Source:  USD/CAD softens to around 1.4380 in Thursday’s early Asian session. Fed Minutes signalled a cautious approach to rate cuts. Justin Trudeau’s resignation and a rise in crude oil prices support the Loonie.  The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.4380 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and higher crude oil prices provide some support to the Loonie. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak on Thursday. The Canadian and the US employment data for December will be the highlights on Friday.The prospect of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could lift the Greenback in the near term. The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December 17-18 meeting showed policymakers agreed inflation was likely to continue slowing this year but also saw a rising risk that price pressures could remain sticky due to the potential effect of Donald Trump’s policies. On the Loonie front, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday, saying he intended to step down from the leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party once a new party leader is chosen. A Canadian election may take place in the spring and must be held on October 20, with polls indicating that the opposition Conservatives will win. This, in turn, boosts the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the USD. Additionally, a rise in crude oil prices contributes to the CAD’s upside as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States.

Image Source:  EUR/USD shed 0.25% and fell back into the 1.0300 handle on Wednesday. Despite the midweek downside push, Fiber is holding above two year lows for now. EU Retail Sales, German Industrial Production, and US Challenger Job Cuts on the docket. EUR/USD fell back once again on Wednesday, dipping back into the 1.0300 handle as Fiber traders weigh mixed EU data while sitting in the shadow of Friday’s looming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data dump.European data broadly recovered early Wednesday, with German Retail Sales and pan-European Producer Price Index (PPI) figures both rising from previous prints, but most data printed with below-average caveats, especially EU PPI inflation which remains in contraction territory. Euro traders will be hoping for an upside swing in pan-EU Retail Sales figures for the year ended in December, due early Thursday, but not until after German Industrial Production figures kick off the European trading session. A raft of speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers await traders on Thursday, as well as Challenger Job Cuts for December, which will serve as the last punch of NFP preview data before the bumper labor print on Friday.ADP Employment Change in December showed slower hiring at 122K compared to 140K expected and 146K in November. Wage data is at its slowest since mid-2021.The Federal Reserve’s latest Meeting Minutes indicated greater concern over President Trump’s tariff plans than initially thought. Despite earlier reassurances from Fed speakers about immigration and trade policies’ minimal impact, the minutes highlighted four discussion points on major US policy changes […]

Image Source: Amidst a daily barrage of sell-offs rattling the global bond markets, the S&P 500 managed to scrape together a narrow gain. Investors continue to navigate the unpredictable ‘what if’ trading landscape moulded by Trump’s presidency—where the initial enthusiasm for tax cuts is now overshadowed by mounting concerns over proposed tariffs and bizarre geopolitical aspirations, like purchasing Greenland or exerting more control over the Panama Canal. Surprisingly, the session lacked the expected volatility, possibly as traders conserve their energy for the inauguration day, which promises a turbulent few months thereafter.Despite these uncertainties, a strong showing at the recent  provided a modicum relief, temporarily easing rate jitters and offering a support layer for bond and risk assets. Yet, the looming confirmation of Trump’s  potentially marrying tax cuts with aggressive tariff measures, could send long-term yields soaring. With inflation worries and a heightened demand for term premium already pushing yields higher, predictions of a 5% yield on ten-year Treasuries are becoming increasingly plausible. This week, as we edge closer to these levels, those positioned for such an outcome could be well rewarded.The murkiness of Trump’s potential tariff strategy—whether he might extend relief country-by-country and the conditions under which such concessions could be made—continues to cloud the trading landscape. One emerging narrative is that countries could dodge tariffs by purchasing more expensive U.S. goods, adding another layer to the already complex ‘what if’ scenario facing traders.Grappling with probabilities—incredibly notoriously elusive extreme tail risks—is a constant challenge as a trader. While we often rely on incomplete […]

Image source:  We didn’t manage to take out the 0.618 Retracement with one more high – followed be the mentioned sell-off. It seems that the Minute (4) in yellow is still in Progress. I do expect more downside to take the swinglow from January the 2nd to put in a new low and reset the chart by testing the 50% retracement. There I assume we reverse to the upside to put in the Minute (5).Video Length: 00:09:04

Starwood Property Trust (NYSE: ) is a mortgage real estate investment trust, or REIT, that has been publicly traded for 15 years. Its $26 billion portfolio consists of loans to both commercial and residential borrowers.The company has paid a $0.48 per share quarterly dividend since 2014, which comes out to a 10% yield on the stock’s current price. Can shareholders expect to continue receiving $0.48 per share each quarter?Starwood Property Trust uses a metric it calls “distributable earnings” to measure its cash flow.In 2023, distributable earnings fell nearly 9% from $726 million to $663 million. When Starwood releases its full-year results in February, distributable earnings are expected to be $677 million. Because 2023’s $663 million was below the prior year’s figure, the stock’s dividend safety rating gets a one-point penalty. If 2024’s total comes in at less than $663 million, that downgrade will remain in effect.In 2023, Starwood paid $601 million in dividends for a 91% payout ratio. The total dividend payout is forecast to inch up to $610 million in 2024, but with distributable earnings also projected to rise, the payout ratio would actually drop to 90%.With mortgage REITs, I’m comfortable with payout ratios of 100% or lower, as REITs must pay out 90% of their earnings. (Distributable earnings aren’t the same as regular earnings, as distributable earnings factor out noncash items.) Since REITs have that higher requirement and typically aim to provide the most income possible to investors, a 100% payout ratio is reasonable.If it goes above 100%, it’s […]

While the mega-caps seem to get all the attention these days, there’s 1,000s of stocks out there worth researching. Grid expansion and infrastructure is a big theme that we expect to garner more and more attention in the years ahead, and below is a list of some of the most widely-followed stocks in the space.  As a Bespoke subscriber, you can monitor baskets like this easily using our “custom portfolio” tool.(Click on image to enlarge)Some of the most long-standing and well-known blue chip stocks have struggled mightily at various points in time over the last couple of years. We’re talking about names like Boeing (), Disney (), Nike (), Starbucks (), and Target ().  Below is a snapshot of six-month price charts for a group of nine “beaten-down blue chips” that we’ve been following in our own custom portfolio on our site.  Some names like DIS and SBUX have already turned higher in the last six months, while others like Adobe (), Ford (), and Biogen () remain stuck in nasty downtrends.  (Click on image to enlarge)