Former President Jimmy Carter didn’t leave office as the most popular President, but his years after serving in the Oval Office helped to improve his legacy as one of the most admired men in modern American history. Since 1946, Gallup has run an annual  asking Americans “What man that you have heard or read about, living today in any part of the world, do you admire most? And who is your second choice?” In the survey’s history, Billy Graham tops the list with 61 of the top 10 finishes. Ronald Reagan ranks a distant second with 31 top-ten finishes, but right behind him, Jimmy Carter ranks third with 29, slightly ahead of Pope John Paul II (27) and Bill Clinton (26). Living to just over 100, the 39th President lived a full life.US futures were trading just modestly lower until shortly before 8 AM Eastern but have weakened considerably since then on little news. Overnight in Asia, Japan and Korea both ended their trading years on a negative note with Japan’s Nikkei down 1% and the Kospi down a more modest 0.2%. In terms of economic data, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI came in below 50 for the sixth straight month. Trading in Europe had been much more subdued than in Asia, but these indices have also seen a pickup in the selling as US futures rolled over. Here in the US, both today and tomorrow will be full trading sessions, and markets will be closed on Wednesday for New Year’s Day.Getting back to the US, […]

 Photo by  on    USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.4400 as the US Dollar trades subduedly in light volume conditions. The Fed has guided lower number of interest rate cuts for the next year. Investors see the BoC reducing interest rates further to avoid inflation overshooting risks.  faces slight pressure near the key support of 1.4400 in Monday’s North American session. The Loonie pair ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) trades subduedly in illiquid market ahead of New Year.  (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles around 108.00.Though the Greenback edges lower on Monday but it is almost set to wrap up the calendar year with 6.7% gains, largely came in last three months as investors priced in strong growth and higher inflation in the  (US) economy in 2025 after victory of Republican Donald Trump in Presidential elections.Trump is expected to tight immigration controls, raise import tariffs and lower taxes under his administration. The impact is already visible as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled fewer interest rate cuts for the next year. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has refrained from guiding any impact of Trump’s policies on economy, inflation and interest rates. said on December 18, “It is very premature to make any kind of conclusions”. “We don’t know what will be tariffed, from what countries, for how long, in what size.” Meanwhile, the broader outlook of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains weak as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to continue reducing interest rates further to avoid […]

(Click on image to enlarge) Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. ~ George Soros In this week’s Dirty Dozen, we talk Bull Volatile regimes, signs of short-term bottoms mixed with increasing intermediate risks, then cover USDCAD breakouts and the deteriorating US fiscal picture, plus more… 1. SPX entered a Bull Volatile regime last week. And as my partner  noted in this weekend’s Sunday Setup, Bull Vol regimes are a condition and not a catalyst for a market top/corrective period.  This is something to take note of as the market’s underlying characteristics are changing, which means it’s a good time to be a bit more on your toes.(Click on image to enlarge)2. Last week, I shared evidence of a shorter-term bottom and growing signs that we’re headed toward a more significant corrective period after perhaps a bit more ST upside. Here’s another data point supporting the former. The % of R3K stocks below their lower Bollinger Bands spiked the other week to their highest levels since the COVID bear market lows.  This likely means last week’s bottom holds for a bit, but it also serves as more evidence of a changing market structure, which is concerning. (Click on image to enlarge)3. We also discussed the concerning trend of the McClellan Summation index. Well, SentimenTrader shared this over the weekend that includes the NYSE Net High-Low chart, writing:  “For most of the past two years, most, if not all, signs of a healthy market […]

Image Source:   Bazooka’s and bank recaps. Nothing has worked. Instead, China’s industry is in freefall with deflation threatening to spiral out of control. At the same time, real estate developers are back in the news facing insolvency; a threat that is impacts the world outside (offshore) China as much as what’s happening inside.Video Length: 00:18:20

Gold sold off a bit during the trading session on Friday as pretty much anything risk related has had a tough day. It looks like everybody has made their profit at the end of the year in the stock market and it looks like probably some of the same here. Although gold has a whole plethora of reasons why it might struggle. For example, one of the biggest issues will be the fact that interest rates in America continue to climb quite drastically. If that’s the case, then it’s hard to really get traction in the gold market. I think at this point in time, you need to be looking more or less through the prism of whether or not the $2,600 level can hold. If it does not, and we break down through that uptrend line just below, that could be rather ugly.  On the Breakdown(Click on image to enlarge)Anything below there opens up the possibility of a move down to the $2,500 level. If we do break above the 50-day EMA, which is sitting just above and near the $2,645 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $2,700 level, which is where we had recently formed a double top. The double top, of course, is a fairly strong sign that we are going to struggle, but I also recognize that we have a scenario where liquidity is disappearing, and the market might just go sideways for a while.I wouldn’t put huge positions on […]

Image Source:   PoundIn 2024, GBP/USD fell 1% despite strong fluctuations. The pair rallied from 1.23 to 1.34 midyear but dropped 5% in Q4 due to USD strength. But the pound outperformed other major currencies, supported by the BoE’s slower rate cuts.In 2025, UK growth may fall short of the BoE’s 1.5% forecast due to trade uncertainties and tighter fiscal policies. A weaker labor market may prompt deeper BoE rate cuts, pressuring GBPMeanwhile, the US economy remains robust, with GDP forecast at 2.4% supporting a cautious Fed easing cycle. Political shifts, including Trump’s fiscal policies, could bring GBP/USD to face downward pressure in the first half of 2025.  GoogleGoogle CEO Sundar Pichai emphasized the high stakes for 2025, highlighting competition, regulatory pressures, and rapid advancements in AI. Pichai urges employees to focus on scaling Google’s Gemini app and solving real user problems. Gemini, seen as a key growth driver, aims to rival competitors like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.Pichai acknowledged the challenges of catching up in AI but emphasized he outlined plans to evolve Gemini into a universal assistant while keeping costs competitive.  GoldGold price fell on Friday to 2,620 per ounce, pressured by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Despite this dip, gold has surged 28% in 2024, hitting a record high of $2,790 in October, fuelled by Fed rate cuts and global tensions.Analysts remain optimistic for 2025, expecting gold to benefit from continued central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and Trump’s return to office, which could introduce inflationary policies and trade […]