Image Source:  WTI consolidates after the overnight pullback from a nearly three-month high. Concerns about weak demand from China and rising oil supply cap the upside. Worries about tighter Russian and Iranian supply support to the commodity. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle for a firm intraday direction on Tuesday and oscillate in a narrow trading band, below the $73.00 round figure through the early European session. The commodity, for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-$74.00s, or a nearly three-month top touched on Monday amid mixed fundamental cues. Concerns about weak demand from China – the world’s top oil importer – and the rising supply from non-OPEC countries turn out to be key factors acting as a headwind for the black liquid. Furthermore, the volume of global crude exports declined in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. This, along with expectations that slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 could dent fuel demand, contribute to capping Crude Oil prices. That said, worries about tighter Russian and Iranian supply, amid widening Western sanctions checked losses, should continue to offer support to Crude Oil prices and help limit any meaningful downside. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent positive move witnessed over the past month or so has run out of steam and positioning for any further depreciating move in the commodity. Traders might also opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of […]

Image Source: A year ago, . Here’re the 10yr-3mo spreads in November 2023, and Q/Q GDP growth rates for 2024Q3.Figure 1: 10 year-3 month term spreads in November 2023, %. Numbers indicate q/q GDP growth in 2024Q3. Source: OECD, MEI via FRED, and TradingEconomics.com. In Chinn and Ferrara (2024), we reported the following results for the prediction of recessions as defined by ECRI (except using NBER for the US).Source: .On the basis of the pseudo-R2, one might have expected good predictions for Canada, Germany, and the US, while the spreads would have not had much predictive power for Italy and Japan.Indeed, recent commentary has suggested recession has indeed come to Germany, maybe to  Canada. While GDP is not the standard for defining recessions (either for NBER or ECRI), they can summarize some information regarding the pace of economic activity. While Q3 growth was relatively wrong in France, the r.For the United States, growth in Q3 was a strong +0.8% q/q (3.1% q/q AR), despite the inverted yield curve. And the UK, for which the spread seemed particularly useless for predicting recessions (debt-service ratio and a financial conditions index are better), is a good candidate for being in recession now.Risks, 2025The Price And Income Elasticities Of US Trade FlowsA Manufacturing Recession?

Image Source: Today you will see Gold price prediction based on the technical analysis. What is the support and resistance on the daily time frame for XAUUSD? What to expect where the price will breakout for the XAUUSD based on the supply and demand zones.Video Length: 00:03:21

Image Source: What is the future for the French economy? What does the future hold for a country with four simultaneous deficits – the only one in the entire eurozone? What is the future for a country with a debt of over 3 trillion euros, which finds itself sanctioned by a transnational institution – the European Commission – for its budgetary situation? What is the future, finally, for France, which, in addition to this disastrous situation, also finds itself in a deep political crisis?The big question is: can we still hope for economic recovery, or is France doomed to decline?The resignation of the Barnier government interrupted the examination of the Finance Bill for 2025. The new Prime Minister, François Bayrou, now finds himself faced with the task of dealing with the demands of the various parties. In these conditions, two options are emerging: to quickly resume the budgetary texts in early January, or to take more time to rewrite them in depth, with a timetable stretching to February-March. In fact, the spectre of triggering a 49.3 vote looms again (even if the executive is still hoping for a classic vote), as the absence of consensus makes reforms more complex, in a context where every budgetary decision is the subject of lengthy negotiations.In our hyper-financialized economy, the alarm bells are ringing in the markets, not in Parliament. For several weeks now, French borrowing rates have remained relatively high, and the gap with Germany is widening. Although it has not risen sharply (thanks […]

Photo by  on   GBP/USD strengthens as the US Dollar Index continues to face pressure for the third consecutive session. The US Dollar could receive some support after President-elect Trump stated that his tariff policy will not be scaled back. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales in the UK increased by 3.1% in December, swinging from the previous 3.4% decline. GBP/USD continues to rise for the third consecutive day, trading near 1.2530 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair’s upward momentum is driven by a subdued US Dollar (USD). Later in the day, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is set to be released. On Wednesday, markets will focus on the Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December policy meeting.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s performance against six major currencies, remains under pressure for the third straight session, trading near 108.30 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback may find some support following President-elect Donald Trump’s comments that his tariff policy will not be scaled back.Trump refuted a Washington Post report suggesting his team was considering limiting the scope of his tariff plan to only cover specific critical imports. Traders are expected to closely watch developments related to Trump’s tariff strategy.The Pound Sterling (GBP) showed little movement following the release of the UK Retail Sales figures on Tuesday. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales saw a notable 3.1% increase in December 2024, a sharp rebound from the previous month’s 3.4% decline. This surge exceeded market expectations, which had forecasted a […]

Image Source:  Energy – Saudis raise oil prices  The move higher in crude oil prices appears to be running out of momentum with ICE Brent settling 0.27% lower on the day, although it continues to trade above US$76/bbl. While there has been some tightening in the physical market, fundamentals through 2025 are still set to be comfortable, which should cap the upside. Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price for Arab Light into Asia by US$0.60/bbl month-on-month to US$1.50/bbl over the benchmark for February loadings. All grades into Asia saw increases ranging between US$0.40/bbl and US$0.60/bbl. The increase comes after OPEC+ decided last month to extend supply cuts. In addition, the physical market in the Middle East has seen some strength more recently.Preliminary OPEC production numbers are starting to come through, and according to a Bloomberg survey, crude oil production fell by 120k b/d MoM to total 27.05m b/d in December. Declines were driven by the UAE, Kuwait and Iran, where the former saw production falling by 100k b/d, while the latter two saw output decline by 40k b/d. Meanwhile, Iraqi oil production is estimated at 4.12m b/d, still above its production target of 4m b/d.The latest Commitment of Traders report shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 33,070 lots over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 186,915 lots as of 31 December. This move was predominantly driven by fresh longs entering the market after an improvement in sentiment. However, given expectations […]