Image source:   Price action is clearly reflecting the market’s belief trade wars will ultimately be avoided, with the US Dollar selling off across the board and stocks back on the bid. It’s also possible yesterday’s US JOLTs job openings miss has fueled increased speculation the Fed will need to be more accommodative than less going forward.Video Length: 00:00:41A Better Path Forward Investors Getting Reacquainted With Trump Tactics Markets Welcome US Tariff Delay

Ethereum price started a recovery wave above the $2,550 zone. ETH is showing positive signs but faces many hurdles near the $2,880 level. Ethereum started a decent upward move above the $2,550 zone. The price is trading below $2,880 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $2,800 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it stays below the $2,880 level.   Ethereum Price Recovery Faces HurdlesEthereum price started a recovery wave after it dropped heavily below $2,500, underperforming . ETH tested the $2,120 zone and recently started a recovery wave.The price was able to surpass the $2,500 and $2,550 resistance levels. It even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the  from the $3,402 swing high to the $2,127 swing low. However, the bears are now active near the $2,900 zone.The price failed to clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,402 swing high to the $2,127 swing low. There is also a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $2,800 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.Ethereum price is now trading below $2,880 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price seems to be facing hurdles near the $2,800 level.(Click on image to enlarge)The first major resistance is near the $2,880 level. The main resistance is now forming near $2,920. A clear move above the $2,920 resistance might send the price toward the […]

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, dives lower and trades near 107.50 at the time of writing on Wednesday ahead of the US Purchase Managers Index (PMI) releases from both S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Tensions in markets over the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs are unwinding now that levies on Mexico and Canada slapped over the weekend have been paused. This coincides with some US Dollar (USD) risk premium easing this Wednesday while Chinese traders head back to their desks after the Chinese New Year, with a surge in trading volumes. As mentioned above, the economic data calendar shows a bulk of  releases on Wednesday. In Europe, the aggregate , German, French, and Spanish PMI data have already been released earlier in the day, with final readings for January falling roughly in line to below their preliminary readings. In the US, S&P Global is set to release its reading in the early American session, with the ISM data specifically for the Services sector set to be issued just minutes thereafter.  Daily digest market movers: Data takes over from tariffs At 13:15 GMT, the ADP Employment Change for the private sector will be released. Expectations are for an increase of 150,000 new jobs in January compared to 122,000 previously.  At 14:45 GMT, S&P Global will release its final reading for the Services and Composite PMI for January. No changes are expected from preliminary readings, with Services standing […]

Image source:   Amazon says no to UPS. Costs are too high.Union Reality BitesThe Wall Street Journal comments  Two years ago Teamsters boss Sean O’Brien touted a “historic” labor agreement with United Parcel Service. Now comes the rest of the story, and it isn’t pretty. UPS shares plunged Thursday 14.1% after it announced workforce and delivery reductions. Workers who lose their jobs can thank Mr. O’Brien. Recent earnings reports have been mostly upbeat with many companies announcing new investments. Not UPS. The carrier on Thursday announced a “network reconfiguration” that “could result in the closure of up to 10% of our buildings, a reduction in the size of our vehicle and aircraft fleets, and a decrease in the size of our workforce.” It will also cut half of its delivery business with Amazon, its largest customer. UPS’s rising labor costs have made many Amazon deliveries less lucrative and perhaps unprofitable. Amazon will now use its own network to deliver more of its own packages, which it can do at lower cost than UPS because most of its drivers aren’t unionized. The Teamsters have found little success trying to organize Amazon workers, so it’s ironic that their labor contract with UPS is making the retail giant bigger. The 2023 UPS agreement increased average compensation for full-time drivers over five years to $170,000 from $145,000. Teamsters at UPS get up to seven weeks of vacation and don’t pay healthcare premiums. “Teamsters have set a new standard and raised the bar for pay, benefits, […]

Image Source:   The global trade war is intensifying as the United States enforces tariffs on major trading partners. This move has prompted retaliatory measures from China, Canada, and Mexico, increasing economic uncertainty worldwide. The U.S. aims to correct trade imbalances and protect domestic industries, but the impact on global supply chains and markets remains significant.  Why the U.S. Imposed TariffsThe U.S. administration introduced 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, while Chinese imports face 10% levies. The primary reasons include: Reducing trade deficits Countering unfair trade practices Addressing intellectual property concerns Responding to illicit drug distribution In response, Canada and Mexico secured a temporary 30-day tariff pause, agreeing to strengthen border security and immigration controls.  China’s CountermeasuresUnlike Canada and Mexico, China retaliated aggressively by imposing tariffs on U.S. exports, including: 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas LNG 10% tariff on crude oil and heavy machinery Restrictions on rare earth mineral exports Additionally, China has placed export controls on critical minerals essential for high-tech products and listed certain U.S. companies as “unreliable entities,” restricting their operations within China.   Market Reactions and Economic ImpactThe trade war is affecting global markets, causing volatility in: Stock indices Currency exchange rates Commodity prices The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso have shown temporary gains, while Asian markets remain unstable due to China’s stance. Analysts warn of potential disruptions in supply chains, rising consumer prices, and lower investor confidence.  ConclusionThe intensifying global trade war is escalating as the U.S. imposes tariffs, prompting China, Canada, and Mexico to respond with retaliatory actions. Consequently, this situation highlights the fragile […]

The US dollar is trading heavily as the pullback from tariff-threat extreme continues. It is weakest against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. Stronger than expected wage growth and softer US 10-year yields has driven the yen to new highs for the year, to lead the major currencies with more than a 1% gain. The weakest among the G10 currencies is the Canadian dollar, which is up about 0.35% and is approaching the year’s high. Among emerging market currencies, only the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee are lower. China’s mainland market re-opened from the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Chinese equities, including those that trade in Hong Kong, fell, though most of the other large bourses in the region rose. India was the other notable exception. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is treading water and is little changed after rising about 0.20% yesterday. Disappointing corporate earnings yesterday are weighing on US equity indices today, pointing to a lower opening. Bonds are rallying. European benchmark 10-year yields are 3-6 bp lower. The 10-year US yield, which has been holding above 4.50% on a closing basis is off almost four basis point to 4.47%. The US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement will be made today. Gold is trading a record high above $2870. It settled last week below $2800. March WTI is trading in the upper half of yesterday’s range (~$70.65-$74.35). It traded almost $73 earlier today but is now near $72. USD: After settling poorly yesterday, the Dollar Index settled poorly yesterday, it is […]