There were moderate signs of topping today in precious metals and miners. Gold got an extra boost yesterday with the impeachment rumor concerning President Trump. Markets overreacted…as usual.
Silver and Miners formed swing highs today. The next step in establishing a top is closing beneath their 10-day EMA’s. Follow through to the downside is key.
The dollar closed higher on the 37th trading day of this cycle. A significant low is possible. Prices need to retake the 98.50 level to revoke this week’s breakdown.
-US DOLLAR- Today marked the 37th day of the current cycle. Prices may have bottomed. However, it will take a daily close back above the 98.50 level to invalidate this week’s heavy breakdown. A close above 97.98 is needed to make a swing low.
-GOLD- Prices formed a mild reversal candle today. Closing below $1,246 will make a swing high and possible top. Breaking the daily cycle trendline will initiate the final descent into a 6-Month cycle low.
-SILVER- Prices formed a swing high but managed to close above the 10-day EMA. A minimum of two lower closes below the 10-day EMA is required to establish a top.
-GDX- Prices soldoff on expanding volume while making a swing high. The next step in confirming a top to this rebound is closing beneath the 10-day EMA.
-GDXJ- Junior miners also formed a swing high on increasing volume. Next, we need a daily close below the 10-day EMA and preferably below $32.00.
-DUST- Prices formed a swing low. I’d like to see a close above $32.30 (20-day EMA) before assigning an interim low.
-JDST- Prices formed a swing low. Closing above $81.70 would be very productive.
-SPY- Stocks plummeted yesterday on concerns regarding President Trump. I’m not convinced a correction has begun. If stocks regain their composure, precious metals should weaken.
-WTIC- Prices closed above the 50 and 200-day MA’s. We could see a little pushback tomorrow. I still expect choppy action until the May 25th OPEC decision.
