Every February the BLS does annual benchmark revisions for the prior year. This year there were huge revisions.
I will do my regular jobs report next, but first we need to discuss benchmark revisions.Revisions to Establishment Survey Data
In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2024. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which counts jobs covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2023 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2020 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2020, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate other revisions.
The seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 589,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 598,000, or -0.4 percent. Not seasonally adjusted, the absolute average benchmark revision over the past 10 years is 0.1 percent.
The over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for March 2024 was revised from +2,900,000 to +2,346,000 (seasonally adjusted).
All revised historical establishment survey data are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm. In addition, an article that discusses the benchmark and post- benchmark revisions and other technical issues is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.
Establishment Survey Synopsis
Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey
Effective with data for January 2025, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates their population estimates to incorporate new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the most recent population base year, typically the last decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics on births and deaths, and improvements in estimation methodology.
This year’s adjustment was large relative to adjustments in past years. It reflects both updated methodology and new information about net international migration in recent years.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS did not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2024 and earlier months. However, to show the impact of the population adjustments, table B displays differences in selected December 2024 labor force series based on the old and new population estimates.
Table B shows the adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and over in December by 2.9 million. The increases in population were relatively large for Asians and Hispanics.
The adjustment increased the total civilian labor force by 2.1 million, including increases of 2.0 million in employment and 105,000 in unemployment. The number of people not in the labor force increased by 765,000.
Although the effect on levels was relatively large, the effect on rates and ratios was small. The adjustment increased the total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate by 0.1 percentage point each.
The effects of the adjustment on these rates for the major worker groups were also relatively small. These annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time.
Table C shows the effect of the introduction of new population estimates on the change in selected labor force measures between December 2024 and January 2025.
Additional information on the population adjustments and their effects on national labor force estimates is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdf
Tables B and C
Synopsis
Experimental Data
Although the official household survey estimates will not be revised, BLS will produce experimental time series back to April 2020 for the total labor force and total employed that account for the January2025 population control effects.
These experimental series will be available in the CPS technical documentation shortly after the publication of this news release on February 7, 2025, at www.bls.gov/cps/documentation.htm#pop.
Population controls for veterans have also been updated with the release of data for January 2025. These controls are derived from a Department of Veterans Affairs population model. Historical data have not been revised.
A quick check of the above link shows nothing of merit. I was hoping for revised historical data only to find this blurb.
Notice to Smoothed Series Data Users
BLS will no longer update the smoothed labor force and employment research series.
These series, which run from January 1990–December 2017, were last updated in February 2018. They will remain available online for interested data users, but no further extensions or revisions to the series are planned.
The appropriate way to read those paragraphs is as follows: We know are data is garbage, but we won’t bother to fix it.My regular jobs report with bogus charts will follow shortly.Related PostsJanuary 31, 2025: February 4, 2025: February 5, 2025: Initial Unemployment Claims Increase By 11,000, Continued Claims By 36,000 December Had The Second Largest Monthly Trade Deficit In HistoryADP Payrolls Better Than Expected But Two-Thirds Of The Economy Has Stalled
